2019 Kentucky Derby odds, predictions: Expert who has hit 9 Derby-Oaks Doubles lists early picks,
The road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby has already featured prep races like the Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby. Bettors everywhere are studying those results along with the latest 2019 Kentucky Derby odds in search of the next Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown winner. Justify was one of the favorites heading into last year’s race at Churchill Downs before the Bob Baffert-trained colt also took down the Preakness and Belmont. Now, Omaha Beach, who won the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, is the early favorite at 3-1 Kentucky Derby odds. Right behind Omaha Beach at 4-1 on the current 2019 Kentucky Derby odds board is another Baffert-trained horse, Roadster, who won the Santa Anita Derby and was third in the Del Mar Futurity. Six horses are listed at 10-1 or lower, setting up the Kentucky Derby 2019 to be a highly entertaining two minutes of racing on Saturday, May 4 at Churchill Downs. Before locking in any 2019 Kentucky Derby picks of your own, listen to the predictions from SportsLine’s resident horse racing guru, Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling comes into the Kentucky Derby 2019 on a mind-blowing streak: He has hit the Derby-Oaks double at Churchill Downs nine of the last ten years. That means he held a ticket with the winners of the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks nine times in the last decade.
The Derby is just part of a highly successful betting career for Demling, who also nailed his ninth Preakness winner in 14 years at Pimlico last May. He followed that up by predicting Justify’s groundbreaking victory in the Belmont Stakes, as well as calling the winners of the Haskell Invitational, Pennsylvania Derby and Lecomte Stakes, just to name a few. He also hit last year’s Arkansas Derby and Louisiana Derby.
Demling absolutely crushed this year’s Pegasus World Cup, nailing the superfecta for a $678 payout on a $1 bet. He also hit the superfecta at the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and picked the winner of the Risen Star Stakes in February, War of Will. He also hit the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta at this year’s Arkansas Derby, the final Kentucky Derby prep race. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2019 Kentucky Derby lineup taking shape, Demling is sharing his early picks at SportsLine. We can tell you Demling wants no part of Tacitus, one of the top Vegas favorites at 10-1 Kentucky Derby odds 2019. The Wood Memorial and Tampa Bay Derby champion comes from the barn of trainer Bill Mott, who has struggled when it comes to producing winners in Triple Crown races.
Mott has never trained a Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes winner, and has just one win at the Belmont, which came from Drosselmeyer almost a decade ago. And while Tacitus has three career wins to his credit, only two of them were in graded stakes races, and he also settled for a disappointing fourth-place in a maiden special weight race at Belmont Park last October. Demling says Tacitus finishes well outside the top five in the 2019 Run for the Roses and say is not worth the 10-1 premium you’ll need to pay for him.
Instead, Demling is high on Long Range Toddy, a massive long shot at 50-1 Kentucky Derby odds. The 3-year-old colt put it all together and finished on top of the leaderboard at the Rebel Stakes. Plus, the Steve Asmussen-trained colt has finished third or better in all but one his six career races, with additional victories in the Clever Trevor and Springboard Mile Stakes. He was sixth in a wet Arkansas Derby, but had already secured enough points to ride in the Kentucky Derby 2019.
“Was Long Range Toddy’s win in the Rebel a fluke? I don’t think so. He has some serious talent and he’s one of those horses that could surprise on Derby day,” Demling told SportsLine.
Long Range Toddy has proven he has what it takes to compete and win against the best horses. In his Rebel Stakes victory, Long Range Toddy held off Improbable, the Baffert-trained horse who is among the 2019 Kentucky Derby favorites.